INDIAN GOVERNMENT SHOULD BE ON HIGH ALERT,LEH TYPE ACCIDENT MAY REPEAT SOON
The event of complete washout in Leh has a message. Its first message is addressed to the Indian Scientific community. It is asking one big question as to what caused the rains in Leh. As per records and as per the geographic conditions there can not be a rain in Leh. Normally diffuse clouds reach this region and gradually freeze themselves to snow. This is an area where only snow falls. It is due to this that a different type of culture and cult developed in the area. As much as the Himalaya is concerned,it is well known that it is a sedimentary structure therefore can not hold big structures and the land will be unstable. If at all the people of the region prefer to be counted and listed among the Europeans and decide to earn and live by American style and European way of tourism ,forgetting thousands year old established way of life,perhaps the fate will be the same as it has happened today. In short , I would like to say that the people of the area have given a challenge to the NATURE which has only recoiled. This will be explained below.
The second question is an open challenge to the scientific capability of the Indian Scientists. It is an open challenge to their ability to foresee and plan the disasters likely to ARISE DUE TO RAPIDLY CHANGING HABITS AND MEDDLING WITH THE NATURE which they have apparently failed to do which I did several years before but it was not taken note .
Before tendering a scientific explanation for what has been witnessed and also warning for what is in the wait,I want to relate my experience of trying to share scientific observations with the then Minister for Scienbce and Technology ,about five years back. I had goen to New Delhi where discussing the phenomenon of heat exchange and convection currents that is affecting the atmospheric behaviour resulting into the rapidly changing pattern of monsoon marked by deficient rains in the gangetic plains but simultaneous heavy rains and land slides accompanied by cloud bursts in heights, suggestion came to meet Mr.Kapil Sibbal who was then the Honourable Minister for Science and Technology for this country.
During my visit to Mr.Sibbal,I tried to give some reasons which could apparently explain the disturbed weather pattern and also made some suggestions to start deep studies in the field of ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND Physics of CONDENSATION and HEAT BALANCE. The immediate response of Mr.Sibbal was that of a typical complacent government employee that scientists in the meteorology department and oceanography are at work and things are in control. With my background of research, where I welcome every comment and examine every aspect of failure, I never expected such a complacent reply from a responsible government dignitary and had to tell him in very clear terms that
" THE AREA OF INDO-GANGETIC PLAIN THAT IS AREA STARTING FROM WESTERN BENGAL,JHARKHAND,BIHAR,U.P, UP TO PUNJAB WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME DRY AND HIMALAYAN STATES WOULD CONTINUE GETTING POURING RAIN WHAT MAY BE CALLED CLOUD BURST LEADING TO MASSIVE LANDSLIDES AND FURTHER CHINA AND ADJOINING REGIONS WILL KEEP GETTING MORE PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE NON CONDENSATION OF CLOUDS THAT ARE SUPPOSED TO PRECIPITATE IN THE NORTH OF DECCAN PLATEAU UP TO THE FOOT OF HIMALAYAS."
I warned him to be ready to witness FLOODS WITHOUT RAINS IN THE STATES OF U.P.,BIHAR ETC. which is no matter of surprise today.
I also told him in no unclear terms that this state of affairs will continue for many years to come. It is more than five years now that the situation remains the same. On my return to Varanasi,media persons met me and wanted to know my comments on the climatic vagaries which was the same as given to Mr.Sibbal which was published immediately by the media. The cuttings of the same is still with me and the truth of the story before the readers.
However,it is not my intention to create a scare but to simply interpret the atmospheric behaviour. The rise in the temperature of Himalayan region and that of the indo gangetic plains has created a total dis balance. The amount of precipitation that is due for the plains, on account of high temperature and adverse atmospheric chemistry is escaping the plains and heading towards himalayas and bringing sudden and rapid rains and rapid cloud movements. It is noteworthy that in Leh region people have reported of thunder and then rains.This is highly unfortunate. Leh is a place where clouds loose all momentum and start freezing so no thunder is possible.Yet such happenings need to be scientifically interpreted and way out to be searched so that people can survive. Unfortunately in this shirt note,not much analysis of the phenomenon is possible,but it suffices to say that what occurred has a very realistic scientific explanation and competent people can find out a way out.
Few words of caution is necessary that within a fortnight once again a stream of clouds will move and there is every possibility of a Leh repeat at many places in the upper Himalayas and Kashmir which needs people to be on guard and perhaps this would be a better disaster management compared to the prescriptions of the management guys of New Delhi.
Tuesday, August 10, 2010
Monday, July 19, 2010
COUNTRY IS FACING THE RESULT OFCORRUPTED POLITICS
RAIL ACCIDENTS & MINISTER'S ABILITY
It is highly surprising that Indian Government and parliament despite a passage of 60 years time,could not evolve a mechanism to appoint capable and expert ministers for its ministries. Perhaps no body gave a suggestion to have a ministry for selecting Ministers and it is right time now that a new ministry for the purpose is created which may give an employment to some one having the ability to barter political support to the ruling alliance. Soon the politics of alliance will prove suicidal for the country.
The results of unholy,corrupt alliance politics are now appearing. The people of this mighty country are watching helplessly how square pegs are being fitted in the round holes.Politicians and Ministers are doing everything except their job. They are not doing their home work.People are also witnessing how MBA type youngsters are forming a coterie of which the present government is very proud of. There is no machinery to evaluate and check the damages being done to the Indian polity.There is no relationship between the personal ability of the minister to the ministry he is handling? The immediate attention has to be paid to the rail accidents that took place withing a short period of few months ,all taking place in the region of West Bengal and its surrounding where the present minister is sitting all the time.
The unholy alliance through barter took hold of the rail ministry and despite full knowledge of the fact that railways is under great stress and heading towards ruin,no control appears to be working . Accidents after accidents ,dilapidated conditions of railways and control from a remote place are enough to shake the confidence of the poor public which is forced to take railway traveling. Why could the Govt of India not make it mandatory that Indian Ministers would always travel by rail unless the situation warrants the use of air traveling. This could at least keep the railways on guard but seldom do we find that any minister travels by rail. They are afraid of dying but have no concern on the deaths of fellow countrymen on whose taxes they are fattening.
The system needs an overhaul. Change in the ministry is the immediate requirement. The alliance may go to hell,lives of the people at the hands of a person taking advantage of the political situation should not be allowed to perpetuate.
It is highly surprising that Indian Government and parliament despite a passage of 60 years time,could not evolve a mechanism to appoint capable and expert ministers for its ministries. Perhaps no body gave a suggestion to have a ministry for selecting Ministers and it is right time now that a new ministry for the purpose is created which may give an employment to some one having the ability to barter political support to the ruling alliance. Soon the politics of alliance will prove suicidal for the country.
The results of unholy,corrupt alliance politics are now appearing. The people of this mighty country are watching helplessly how square pegs are being fitted in the round holes.Politicians and Ministers are doing everything except their job. They are not doing their home work.People are also witnessing how MBA type youngsters are forming a coterie of which the present government is very proud of. There is no machinery to evaluate and check the damages being done to the Indian polity.There is no relationship between the personal ability of the minister to the ministry he is handling? The immediate attention has to be paid to the rail accidents that took place withing a short period of few months ,all taking place in the region of West Bengal and its surrounding where the present minister is sitting all the time.
The unholy alliance through barter took hold of the rail ministry and despite full knowledge of the fact that railways is under great stress and heading towards ruin,no control appears to be working . Accidents after accidents ,dilapidated conditions of railways and control from a remote place are enough to shake the confidence of the poor public which is forced to take railway traveling. Why could the Govt of India not make it mandatory that Indian Ministers would always travel by rail unless the situation warrants the use of air traveling. This could at least keep the railways on guard but seldom do we find that any minister travels by rail. They are afraid of dying but have no concern on the deaths of fellow countrymen on whose taxes they are fattening.
The system needs an overhaul. Change in the ministry is the immediate requirement. The alliance may go to hell,lives of the people at the hands of a person taking advantage of the political situation should not be allowed to perpetuate.
Sunday, June 27, 2010
Indian fuel policy needs immediate review
The recent outbursts all over the country on the issue of price rise of fuels of all types has something to say. The clear message is that the present policy,even if it is not wrong,does need some reconsideration.The whole country can not be treated to have gone mad. Even the supporters of the ruling government alliance Miss.Mayavati,the chief minister of U.P has not spared any words to decry. The Bahujan leader has even alleged that congress party is helping the companies who helped it monetarily in the past election and the party in power is now obliging them. Irrespective of the allegations,at least this is very clear that people,politicians and even supporters of the Govt like Miss.Mamta Banerjee are all unhappy due to the decision of the Govt.
However, the big scientific question involved is that India does not have petroleum and has to depend on foreign suppliers who through their guild always try to destabilise the economies of such countries who are not self reliant. India is one such country that due to its ill considered policies suffers time and again on various fronts. The type of technological development for self sustenance needed has been neglected and now its bad effects are showing its impact.
Small countries like Brazil and Argentina etc are controlling their fuel by using alcohol. Why is India lagging behind? This is a big question that needs to be explained. There is none in the Govt who can answer this question. How has the Govt planned to survive with the increasing fleet of automobiles without developing alternatives?Why has the Govt not considered imposing some curbs on the misuse of the petroleum products. Knowing well that India is fuel deficient country and will remain so in the future also,it is imperative to think of some measures that help curb the tendency of its misuse.
Why large fleets of cars and motorcade moves with ministers and govt officials,can it be not regulated? Likewise why cant the govt think of imposing a rationing of the petrol and diesel.
Rationed fuel to a tune of the genuine need of the user be provided at certain fixed price and beyond that amount at a higher price .For example the present rate of Rs.56 a liter of petrol should be fixed for rationed petrol and a motorbike be given 15 litres per month quota.If it consumes more ,the petrol be issued at a rate of 150 rupees per litre. This will work as a deterrent for misuse . Similar formula for cars and trucks can also be applied. Genuine use will help regulate the demand of fuel. Its misuse has to be stopped and the extra money earned by the companies can go to compensate for the "so called losses" of the companies. Otherwise the story is not going to stop but it will repeat. Encouraged by the present hike,the companies will keep on forcing the Govt for further increase and this recurrent problem will keep shattering the economy which is already damaged beyond redemption. It is a separate matter that shamelessly we keep talking about rising GDP and achieving fiscal controls .
It is advisable to consult experts and not GoM on the subject.
However, the big scientific question involved is that India does not have petroleum and has to depend on foreign suppliers who through their guild always try to destabilise the economies of such countries who are not self reliant. India is one such country that due to its ill considered policies suffers time and again on various fronts. The type of technological development for self sustenance needed has been neglected and now its bad effects are showing its impact.
Small countries like Brazil and Argentina etc are controlling their fuel by using alcohol. Why is India lagging behind? This is a big question that needs to be explained. There is none in the Govt who can answer this question. How has the Govt planned to survive with the increasing fleet of automobiles without developing alternatives?Why has the Govt not considered imposing some curbs on the misuse of the petroleum products. Knowing well that India is fuel deficient country and will remain so in the future also,it is imperative to think of some measures that help curb the tendency of its misuse.
Why large fleets of cars and motorcade moves with ministers and govt officials,can it be not regulated? Likewise why cant the govt think of imposing a rationing of the petrol and diesel.
Rationed fuel to a tune of the genuine need of the user be provided at certain fixed price and beyond that amount at a higher price .For example the present rate of Rs.56 a liter of petrol should be fixed for rationed petrol and a motorbike be given 15 litres per month quota.If it consumes more ,the petrol be issued at a rate of 150 rupees per litre. This will work as a deterrent for misuse . Similar formula for cars and trucks can also be applied. Genuine use will help regulate the demand of fuel. Its misuse has to be stopped and the extra money earned by the companies can go to compensate for the "so called losses" of the companies. Otherwise the story is not going to stop but it will repeat. Encouraged by the present hike,the companies will keep on forcing the Govt for further increase and this recurrent problem will keep shattering the economy which is already damaged beyond redemption. It is a separate matter that shamelessly we keep talking about rising GDP and achieving fiscal controls .
It is advisable to consult experts and not GoM on the subject.
Friday, June 25, 2010
Repeated fluctuations in fuel pricing needs to be combated scinetifically
Indian fuel market is unpredictable. It is not the lack of resources ,but is due to improper utilization of the available resources. Why has this country not tried using gasses generated in the sewage treatment plants.? Adoption of bio-gas in villages could easily reduce the constant load on the LPG sector because LPG is being used even in villages where its use needs to be banned and use of bio-gas made mandatory. Similar options for vehicles also needs to be created and made mandatory such as using of small cars will reduce the burden of oil purchase.
Increasing the efficiency of engines is not being done. Only focus lies on import of tin boxes in varied shapes and sizes irrespective of fuel efficiency. Tendency to adopt new models without a proven efficiency on fuel consumption should not be permitted by the Govt.
What about the increased use of alcohol as a mix in the petrol? The author has tried and taken the combustion to a level of 30% mix of alcohol in petrol that can very easily bring down the pressure on oil market which if uncontrolled will lead to disaster. The prices of commodities is already rising despite the claim of GDP rise by the Government and people are suffering.Now with the additional increase in oil prices,the over all prices of the commodities and transportation will shatter the already dilapidated condition of the Indian economy. The tale of share market is not going to help in any way and this is high time that scientific methods are adopted. There is an immediate need of a high power committee constituted of capable,working scientists to look in to the damages caused by the price rise and evolve methods to control the menace..
premshankardube24@gmail.com
Increasing the efficiency of engines is not being done. Only focus lies on import of tin boxes in varied shapes and sizes irrespective of fuel efficiency. Tendency to adopt new models without a proven efficiency on fuel consumption should not be permitted by the Govt.
What about the increased use of alcohol as a mix in the petrol? The author has tried and taken the combustion to a level of 30% mix of alcohol in petrol that can very easily bring down the pressure on oil market which if uncontrolled will lead to disaster. The prices of commodities is already rising despite the claim of GDP rise by the Government and people are suffering.Now with the additional increase in oil prices,the over all prices of the commodities and transportation will shatter the already dilapidated condition of the Indian economy. The tale of share market is not going to help in any way and this is high time that scientific methods are adopted. There is an immediate need of a high power committee constituted of capable,working scientists to look in to the damages caused by the price rise and evolve methods to control the menace..
premshankardube24@gmail.com
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